Anyone can have a bottle or two of Pappy; yes anybody. If you’re willing to invest a few hours of time, it’s not only possible but probable. Before I take you there, however, you’ll have to indulge me on a long road to understand some things, unless you’re like me and have already done your homework. It will make a newbie better equipped.

First, your regular go-to people/stores are maybe the best sources. If the owner/manager knows you’re a good customer, then releasing a bottle may be your reward for loyalty, if they can beg one.

Second, understand “the game.” It’s not clear exactly how many cases of Pappy are available each year. A number often used is 6,000 cases. I don’t know if that was the old number of 6,000 for each Spring and Fall release or combined, but now that there is only a Fall release, I’ll go with 6,000 annually. Case packs changed from 12 to 6 or 3 in some ages/years. There will be a significant increase in 10 and 12 year this year so I’ll guess 8,000 cases of 12 as a working number. Julian is on record saying 6,000-7,000 last year.

Lets round it to 100,000 bottles, although that seems too high and I don’t know the definition of “case” quantity, so I’ll go with 50,000. Approximately 40 states get an allocation; yours may get none, requiring a more difficult, long distance chase. So a very, very loose average of 1,250 per state. California, New York and large states will see lots more than, say, Kansas. Some states only get 10 and 12. 15 year/age seems the most popular due to higher proof, lower price and to many fans, taste. The 23 is cool and the most exclusive, but many find it to be too woody and a perfect example of how older is not necessarily better. Julian Van Winkle stated that all the remaining 23 has been bottled, so it’s sitting waiting to be released a little a year.

The Math of Supply
The distillery making it all happen for the Van Winkles was Stitzel Weller; the family had to sell it in the early 1970s when Julian Jr. went into the bottling business in the 1970s, having Stitzel Weller do it for them until buying their own place in 1983.

If you want to learn a huge amount about Van Winkle and the Bourbon they make, go to the Nunn Center Oral History Project out of U of KY. The native unedited video and transcript can be found here and I find very revealing.

The supply of SW ends in 1992 when SW stops bottling and closes, and then in 1991 stops distilling. The deal with Buffalo Trace doesn’t kick in until 2001 or so. Buffalo Trace bought the Weller brand in 1999 and “old stocks” from United, which had once been Owners of Stitzel Weller (and which got sold to current owners of the SW property Dieago). BUT, Heaven Hill bought the Old Fitzgerald brand and a good portion of the supply. Can anyone say Old Fitz 12 year or Parker’s Wheated?

http://m.biz-journals.com/louisville/stories/1999/02/22/daily12.html?r=full

Inventory was sold with the sale. So in the gap years of 1992-2001/02 there was no clear source. Buffalo, or Ancient Age (as it was known until the name change), made “some” wheated Bourbon and I’ve heard might have contract distilled for one or both of Old Weller and Old Fitzgerald brands at some point, along with the New Bernhiem Distillery.
So the history says that there are no more SW barrels, as they are presumably all in bottle. When the “controversy” arose on what’s in a bottle of Van Winkle, Whisky Advocate ended up writing a story with lengthy comment and clarifications.

Bottom line, its been about 12 years since BT began producing more wheated Bourbon for the ramp up of the Van Winkle Brands. 10 and 12 will have a large part of the upcoming release, with 15, 20, and 23 bourbon and 13 year rye (which is all tanked or bottled currently in very short supply) having even have less availability. Add many, many more stores, fancy bars and restaurants that have to have Pappy cred, and it’s never been tougher to score that bottle. There may be a bottle for every five places that want some, let alone one.

If you ask for and get any Pappy, it will likely be 10 or 12 year old unless you’re persistent. Of the 1,250 per-state average I’m guessing that fewer than 600 bottles will be over 12 years old, with the 20 and 23 age down to a few hundred.

Lots of Liquor stores got the memo that they can get mucho dinero for the meager few bottles they will get. Some will charge up to $2,000-$3,000 for a bottle of 23 in places like Manhattan. In your search, you will need to establish if you get a bottle whether it will be at the suggested retail price.

Next Who Has or Will Have/Get it?
In the last few years, the rush to Pappy has resulted in new and existing customers competing for the same supply. These aren’t just consumers but bars, restaurants and stores. Sazerac owns Buffalo Trace, which partners with the Van Winkles to essentially license the right to produce and market the brand. Sazerac owns/makes around 150 varieties of their brands. About 120 of these are hard to move in a very competitive business. A distributor, Buffalo Trace and Sazerac will deny what is about to be written because its not kosher. I’ve spoken to dozens of stores and bars, and if they want Pappy or other things like George T. Stagg, they need to buy the other stuff. With some distributors, it’s completely unrelated, non-Sazerac items. Maybe wine sitting around, for example, that no one wants super cheap. It might be Rain Vodka that Sazerac and BT make. Whatever it is, hooks are common. If a store doesn’t buy much Buffalo Trace or Sazerac, or they don’t do much or any business with the Pappy distributor, you’ll never see a bottle from them. I’ve been told if a store gets some private barrels from Buffalo Trace, it helps but I’m guessing it helps more in volume. One hand washes the other. Large and especially national chains can put a lot of pressure on a Sazerac for a larger allocation of Pappy. Total Wine Super Store has about 100 locations, while the state of Pennsylvania has 600.

So here is arguably how it works, based on my sometime-educated guesses: Sazerac and Buffalo decide what distributors will get how much. Obviously volume, population and rewards play a big part. Buffalo Trace says that they play no part in what individual chains or bars get; yeah, right. I do know that some special bars never seem to run out. Some stores and chains that do a lot of special things get rewarded.
The distribution system in the state then gets its allocation. Then the distributor gets to play favorites big. Certain salespeople get certain amounts and they can use it as bait, threats, rewards, appreciation or a bit of them all. Depending on who a shop/chain knows will determine how much, if any, they get, along with what business they have done or will do. Maybe the salesman’s favorite resturaunt gets a couple bottles of each.

If you go into a small mom-and-pop Liquor store that carries only Jack, Jim and Old Crappy, it’s very unlikely they will ever see a bottle of Pappy. If you go in a store and ask and they laugh at you, you’ll never see a bottle. You WILL get laughed at, and phones WILL be hung up on you. If you put your name on page six of the waiting list you’ll never see a bottle. If you go to a large place in a populated area you most likely won’t get any.

If you’re in a control state that sells it themselves, it will be a challenge but not impossible (keeping in mind they may not get any Pappy at all or nothing older than 12).

I called a somewhat “sleepy” adjacent state and did a special order at a medium-sized, state-controlled store. They called to tell me my 20 year was in and when I got there they had gotten two of each age which were still on the shelf behind the counter. Yes, of course they all left with me.
Pick a medium sized store that you wouldn’t expect a large or affluent Whiskey crowd at. Find one that has a good Whiskey selection, especially Sazerac brands and brands sold by the Sazerac distributor for that state/area.

Remember I said this will take some work and research; it’s not easy by any means.

Go now, NOT in November when its waaaay too late. By October, it’s very likely allocations are given and salesmen already have figured out which screaming bars and stores will get any. Ask now and ask every few weeks.

It is likely they will tell you they never get any or they will check. Expect “NO” but don’t accept it or let a helpful store accept it. If the store checks, they won’t get good news, as the salespeople will discourage most stores and they will get laughed at. So pre-warn the store to put pressure on the rep, mentioning that they never have asked before or have never gotten any when they have asked, etc. The salesman won’t be dropping off a bottle or two unless they have a good reason. Of the 1,250 or so average, a salesman may get none or just a few bottles for 100 locations. Some places will raffle or lottery bottles so enter as many if those you can. Get on lists early. Be the only one asking at places that have a shot or pull to get some. Then the truly special part—you want a bottle or two of 15, 20 or 23. These are the hardest, so when you ask make sure you ask for those, or if you get lucky you’ll get a bottle of 10.

Repeat this process in a few area places, places you know the people, and in other areas or states. Ask friends and family to check in farther-out areas. Take a Pappy request trip and get the word out. If you know anyone that might buy for company functions or gets lots of expensive wine, this person might have a better shot than you. If you’re young, get someone older to do this unless the store knows you by name in a good way. The most important thing, if you get a bottle make sure you show your appreciation: cookies, a pizza, whatever. They might have had to call in favors and spend a bunch of time to help you out.
I won’t say how many bottles I get. I will say I spend a bunch of time to get them and that I do get them. If you call a couple random places rather than doing some research, putting in a bunch of time and face time, you won’t get any; or if you do it will be 10 or 12. Nothing wrong with those; they would make most people real happy. They are not only good but preferred by many.

One last note: I’ve been critical of the whole Pappy game, meaning the crap the family and Buffalo Trace pull and say. I’ve also said that there are things out there I like every bit as much as Pappy and blind-taste better. These things are true to me, but I like having the stuff the same way I like a prime old Michter’s 10 year or early batch 18 year Jefferson without respecting or liking the people and company running the brand. The Van Winkles and Buffalo Trace are not even close to being in the same league as these two in my dislike, but as always, what’s in the bottle is my true judge and jury.